the Northeast is once again the economic locomotive of the country

The numbers of the economic recovery –

By 2022, only 7 out of 20 regions will recover the level of GDP before the advent of the pandemic (2019): Lombardy, Emilia Romagna, Valle d’Aosta, Puglia, Abruzzo, Friuli Venezia-Giulia and Trentino-Alto Adige. The other 13 still aren’t. The data emerge from an analysis carried out by the Cgia Studies Office on the territorial scenarios presented by Prometeia.

The territorial realities that have struggled more than others to recover the lost ground are Tuscany (-1.4%), Calabria (-1.8) and, finally, Sardinia (-2.1).

In 2022

the average growth of the Italian GDP

it is estimated at 2.9%. A level lower than that assumed, for example, in recent weeks by the Bank of Italy (+ 3.2%) or the growth figure of Istat (+3.4). In fact, the CGIA believes that the economic / social scenario will be particularly difficult next autumn.

The expensive energy, the runaway inflation, the developments of the war in Ukraine

and a possible resurgence of Covid risk to “slow down” the economic momentum gained in Italy in the first part of 2020 with more force than expected. Public aid provided by the Draghi government to counter the crisis, the good performance of tourism, investments especially in construction) and exports are the most significant items in the current economic recovery.

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As regards

household consumption

, which make up about 60 per cent of the entire national GDP, should rise by 2.8 per cent compared to 2021, even if compared to 2019 they are still lower by 4.1. Compared to 3 years ago, our overseas sales have increased by 9%.

The provinces that run –

Regarding economic growth, measured at the provincial level by the added value, Venezia Giulia stands out: Gorizia with + 4.4% and Trieste with +4.3 lead the national ranking. Sondrio, on the other hand, with +4.1 occupies the third step of the podium.

Equally significant is the expected result in Barletta, Caserta and Monza-Brianza (all with 4%), Brindisi and Verona (both with + 3.9%). Although growth is still positive, Pordenone, Cagliari and Viterbo (with + 1.9%) and, finally, Vibo Valentia and Reggio Calabria (both with + 1.7%) close the ranking at national level.

Compared to 2019, 51 out of 107 provinces have yet to recover the loss of GDP caused by the pandemic crisis.

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The most critical situations

are recorded in Pisa (-3.5%), Rovigo (-3.8), Brindisi (- 4), Macerata (-4.1), Vibo Valentia (-4.3) and Belluno (-5.2) .

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